Wow. Rogue just died from Standard overnight. Sure, I expected Poison Rogue to die, but I thought Thief Rogue would put up at least a bit more of a fight. Players are still coming to grips with the demise of the class, and there have been thousands of Rogue games played in Legend after the patch, but the results are clear. Poison Rogue cannot hit a 50% win rate anymore. Thief Rogue can, just barely. It is not even a top-10 deck anymore.
This is one drastic change, and it is a brand new day for Hearthstone! From Roguestone to a power vacuum, where multiple contenders are trying to take the vacant throne. This is going to be one messy fight, and it is far from over.
The most popular deck in the early days has been Ramp Druid. I would advise against playing it though, it is not great. It cannot reach a 50% win rate either. What makes Ramp Druid’s popularity interesting is that it is suppressing a couple of good decks that have a sweet matchup spread against the real good decks of this patch. Take note of Fel Demon Hunter and Ping Mage. They are not quite ready yet, as the remnants of Ramp Druid and Quest Warrior are keeping them at bay, but as people stop playing those unsuccessful decks, Fel Demon Hunter and Ping Mage will be able to challenge the current cream of the crop. Take them out for a spin next week.
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The next couple of days will be full of intrigue and potentially a lot of fun, as lots of decks can find success in the fractured meta we have now. It will not last though. There must always be a meta king.
The way I see it, there are as many as seven contenders to the throne!
- Quest Shaman
- Aggro Druid
- Beast Druid
- Quest Hand Warlock
- Face Hunter
- Fel Demon Hunter
- Libram Paladin
I know that’s a lot. The first five are able to suppress almost all other contenders and have mixed results between themselves. Fel Demon Hunter is the only deck that has good odds against all of those five decks. Libram Paladin, in turn, wrecks Fel Demon Hunter while maintaining some chances against the first five. Ping Mage resembles Fel Demon Hunter, but it is somewhat weaker, so it will never be the best deck in the format even if it is playable.
Beast Druid and the older Aggro Druid are neck and neck. Aggro Druid is favored in the mirror, but Beast Druid has better matchups against many of the Shaman archetypes and Fel Demon Hunter. It is impossible to say which one will come out on top yet.
There are some other interesting things going on with the meta. Buff Paladin is challenging Libram Paladin again. I expect Libram Paladin to come out on top, but it is possible that Buff Paladin will become the main Paladin archetype. Their matchup spreads are quite similar, so it will not make a huge difference for their opponents. Buff Paladin has an advantage against Quest Hand Warlock, while Libram Paladin is stronger against aggro. The rest of the matchups are almost the same.
There have also been sightings of Priest on the ladder in the form of Aggro Shadow Priest. It has a chance to remain viable, but it has too many weaknesses to be the best deck in Standard. The decklist has not changed over the past few weeks, but the meta is more favorable for it now. Of course, aggro decks generally have an advantage early in a new meta when many things are still being tested, but there might be some longevity in this Priest archetype.
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Shaman also has more variety to it than just Quest Shaman. Quest Shaman is the strongest Shaman deck, but there are plenty of alternatives at over a 50% win rate right now: Bolner OTK, Burn, Aggro Elemental, Freeze Elemental, and even Evolve. Shaman has the greatest variety of archetypes of any class, but it remains to be seen whether they will all continue to see play when it will be widely known which one is the strongest.
Overall, we’re living some of the most interesting times for Standard format in months!
What About Wild?
We don’t talk about Wild, no, no, no. But! The Wild nerfs got the job done. Ignite Mage and Quest Hunter died overnight.
As for the Warrior nerf, well. It was mainly directed at Standard anyway, and Wild Quest Warrior is feeling as young and healthy as ever. I had thought the nerf would do at least something. Maybe it did a little, but not enough to force anyone to change away from their favorite deck.
There will undoubtedly be more meta changes coming to Wild with the space freed from Mages and Hunters. For now, Wild is a mixture of Quest Warriors, Aggro Priests, and Mecha'thun Warlocks and Druids.
Aggro Priest becoming the top Priest archetype in both Standard and Wild is an interesting twist for a class not known for its aggression. The decks could hardly be further apart, though. Both decks are Shadow Priest decks and use the latest Shadow Priest synergy cards, but the Wild list is a Pirate deck while the Standard list is trying to build a board from miscellaneous Priest and Neutral minions. The success of the Wild Shadow Pirates does not necessarily translate to success for the Standard deck.
Will this be the meta of Wild players’ dreams? Time will tell.
It’s a Brand New Meta in Both Standard and Wild!
The patch was more effective than I had thought. Standard Rogue, Wild Ignite Mage, and Wild Quest Hunter, all were effectively erased from the meta. Standard Thief Rogue is the closest to survival and it is clocking in exactly 50% wins at the moment. That’s not ladder-climbing material.
We have some early results of the winners, but this kind of major change will take time. There is a power vacuum in both formats, and contenders are rushing in to fill the throne. In other words, it is a good time to be playing Hearthstone!
Old Guardian
Ville "Old Guardian" Kilkku is a writer and video creator focused on analytic, educational Hearthstone, and building innovative Standard format decks. Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/c/OldGuardian Twitch: https://www.twitch.tv/old_guardian
I think the number one thing overall is going to be libram paladin with aggro druid and hunter being slightly better at lower ranks. Libram paladin and quest warrior was already the best overall before rogue’s rise and I don’t see why that would change now for paladin.
Between the Stormwind reveal stream cancel and Guff merrily dunking on Scabbs, is anyone else amused at how prophetic the recent trailer art has been for HSTD articles?
For me, Libram Paladin with Cariel Hero still proofed to be a strong contender. Just won 6 consecutive deck, either vs QWarrior, Beast Druid, Ping Mage and surprisingly Fel Demon Hunter.
Still lack win condition againsts Quest Warlock that using Fatique damage.
If Quest Warlock and Fel Demon Hunter wind up representing a large proportion of the Meta, Poison Rogue returns, nerfs notwithstanding.