Sire Denathrius Dominated The Death Knight Showmatch – Will It Dominate March of the Lich King?

The Death Knight showmatch offered a two-day preview of the upcoming new Hearthstone class. We got to see all the double-rune and triple-rune combinations and a large variety of Death Knight cards in action. Ultimately, team Frost prevailed, team Unholy took second place, and team Blood was left far behind.

However, the most notable feature of the showmatch was the ubiquitousness of Sire Denathrius and Prince Renathal. Every deck in the event included both cards, and we saw Sire Denathrius play a key role over and over again. There were even games where both players were offered Sire Denathrius in their mulligan, and both decided to keep it. Keeping ten-cost cards in the mulligan is surely fine. Well, at least Sire was sometimes eaten by Patchwerk, which was moderately satisfying. Coincidentally, double-Frost and double-Unholy with one Blood rune splashed in for Patchwerk were some of the strongest decks in the event.

Is this what we are headed for with March of the Lich King? Sire Denathrius looming over the entire expansion as the dominant force?

O Meta, Where Art Thou?

A single-class showmatch obviously is not the same thing as the ladder or even a tournament. This is a point also raised by Celestalon during Twitter conversations about Sire Denathrius in the event:

I opted to take a screenshot of the tweet, as who knows whether Twitter will be up anymore when you’re reading this article. Anyway, here is what Celestalon wrote:

When you’re in this no-aggro, mega-greedy micro-meta, it’s a perfect storm for Denathrius being strong. Denathrius may be in need of a nerf anyway (I know Final is watching him specifically very closely), but this Showmatch isn’t an indicator for how the live meta will be. (Source)

Celestalon later added that they are closely watching Prince Renathal in addition to Sire Denathrius.

So, maybe the teams just went with minion pile decks as something reasonably stable and easy to build when entering completely uncharted waters? Not quite. The teams were actually able to test decks beforehand, so they had more experience with the classes than players usually have in theorycrafting events.

Meati tweeted the following in response to Celestalon:

After our practice, we were convinced Blood team would win the tournament, and Unholy would get destroyed

Unholy team built way better decks than we did in practice, and Blood’s decks were weaker than ours – but like you said, they were expecting a less greedy meta (Source)

Therefore, while the meta was particularly greedy and only consisted of a single class, it was also more informed than usual early attempts are.

Long-term Perspective – Denathrius and Renathal in Wild

The inherent power level of cards becomes more apparent in the Wild format. When competing against the best of the best, only the strongest survive.

Prince Renathal sees a lot of play in Wild, too. Around 40% of Wild decks include Renathal. Sire Denathrius is strong as well, but not nearly as overpowering: fewer than 20% of Wild decks include the Sire. In Standard, both cards appear in roughly 50% of decks and are almost always used together.

What does this tell us? There is a lack of finishers in Standard, which means that if you plan to play a slower game, you will use Sire Denathrius. It is always a strong option, but in Wild, there are more alternatives, and the pairing between Sire Denathrius and Prince Renathal is untied.

Wild is a more lethal place. Even Shamans, Divine Spirit Priests, and Pirate Rogues can bring a lot of damage fast. Mecha'thun Warlock does not even care about how much Health you have. Renathal and Denathrius are fine in this environment.

You could even argue that Prince Renathal has been a healthy addition to Wild to give slightly slower decks more of a chance in the high-power environment! I wonder if Hearthstone should release some cards directly into Wild to spice things up there?

Short-term Perspective – What About March of the Lich King?

So, we know that Wild has enough power to keep Sire Denathrius at bay. But will Standard have such power available during March of the Lich King?

The most powerful single-card win conditions we have seen so far are Astalor Bloodsworn who deals a bunch of damage after going through all of his forms and Lor'themar Theron, who can produce some crazy stats but might also end up being too inconsistent. They are unlikely to be enough to replace Sire.

We are also seeing classes receive tools that can challenge Prince Renathal through sticky and repeated boards. Druid is especially good at this. However, such decks will ultimately have to decide whether all of those tokens dying means that it is actually good for them to bring in Sire Denathrius as well. The current Imp Warlock does exactly that but the results are a bit mixed: it looks like Sire is barely good enough to be included.

Finally, the Death Knight class itself works really well with Sire Denathrius. Even the Hero Power summons minions that immediately die and infuse Denathrius. What other obvious finishers can you even run in the class? Astalor, I guess. Just swarming the board with no individual win condition card, sure. But in both cases, the strategy is complemented by adding Denathrius to the mix. Some kind of Frost burn deck might do without the Sire, but in a world with Prince Renathal, it can be hard to find enough burn through spells alone.

Ultimately, the main factor keeping Sire Denathrius relevant may be the Death Knight class itself. The class is a perfect fit for Sire, and as a new class will undoubtedly see a lot of play early on, which means that Sire will see a lot of play.

Feelings Versus Statistics

Already now, there are plenty of Standard decks you can play without Renathal and Denathrius. Curse Imp Warlock, Naga Priest, Aggro Druid, Aggro Demon Hunter, Fel Demon Hunter, Enrage Warrior, Miracle Rogue… Objectively, plenty of options exist.

Yet, Renathal and Denathrius keep dominating the popularity ranks and stay at around 50% representation. Maybe they are just so much fun that people want to keep playing with them?

On the other hand, the showmatch made Denathrius trend in my Twitter feed and those feelings were less than positive. Same with Twitch chat, Youtube comments, and Reddit comments. (But are these the best sources you can gather data from?) People wanted to see new Death Knight stuff, not Death Knight as a platform to make Denathrius shine more.

In this circus, Blizzard is not a clown, but a rope walker. It is unlikely for Renathal and Denathrius to break the meta in March of the Lich King. Yet, they run the risk of making everything feel like Castle Nathria all over again. If they are nerfed, they may become completely useless in Wild, the environment where they fit in well at the moment. Keep everything the same, or nerf them?

How about a third option? Renathal and Denathrius pose a major risk to the first expansion of 2023, even bigger than in December. There will be fewer cards in the meta, so the power level will likely be lower, and they may dominate the game in a way they have not done before. What if they were just sent to the Hall of Fame now? Wild gets to keep them as they are. March of the Lich King will get to shine on its own merits without being Castle Nathria 2.0. Alas, people who genuinely want to play with the cards for another expansion will be disappointed. That’s the tightrope Blizzard is walking on right now. Action and inaction both carry risks. Objectively, it does not look like something must change. But the atmosphere of the game could potentially be improved if something did.