We started preparing this list before the nerf patch, and we had to adjust it a tiny bit, but nothing major. So after doing Most Underrated Cards ~10 days ago, it’s time for the Most Overrated Cards now!
I will take a closer look at the pre-expansion predictions and compare them to how strong the cards turned out to be in reality. Rating cards pre-release is really difficult. You can never guess how the meta will look like, not to mention that some of the cards might look insane on the paper, but turn out to be mediocre in the game or vice versa. It’s tough, but it’s part of the reveal season fun. And part of the expansion fun is looking past at those ratings and seeing how wrong we were. Yes, we, because I’m guilty of overrating some of those cards too.
In the second part, I will be looking at the most overrated cards from Rise of Shadows. An overrated card is a card that was rated much higher pre-expansion than its real power level turned out to be after the release. It’s not necessarily a card that was rated to be one of the best in the expansion and turned out to be useless – that’s the extreme case. A card that was meant to be good (e.g. #40 out of 135) but turned out to be unplayable was overrated. Similarly, a card that was supposed to be one of the best in the expansion (#5 out of 135) but turned out to be average was also overrated.
Let me also explain where did I get those ratings from. Most importantly, those are community (so YOUR) ratings, not pro ratings – I feel like it’s the best way to show how an average player felt about the card (or, to be honest, above average player, since most of the casuals likely didn’t care enough to vote). The ratings I will be posting next to each card come directly from our site. I took screenshots of all of the card ratings on the release day, which shows exactly how you felt about those cards right before the expansion got out. When talking about card’s current popularity or win rate, I use HSReplay.net statistics (Last 7 days, Legend-10).
P.S. I have to say that we didn’t have as many overrated cards as we usually do this time around. It was significantly easier to pick the underrated ones, and it’s usually the other way around.
Let’s start!
Heal Druid Package
Crystal Power – #25 out of 135
Crystal Stag – #34 out of 135
Lifeweaver – #52 out of 135
Lucentbark – #58 out of 135
I will talk about this whole package as one, because they were usually rated as a part of the same deck – Heal Druid. An archetype that looked just like it might work on the first day, but one that quickly fell off when people realized that it’s just… bad. Funnily enough, right now I would say that the lowest rated card – Lucentbark – turned out to be the strongest one. We see a deck built around card popping out from time to time, but it usually does not run Crystal Stags or Lifeweavers and just focuses on copying Lucentbark many times and then reviving let’s say 4 or 5 at once.
Heal Druid is not a terrible concept, but it has many flaws. Ramp cards got nerfed, reducing the overall power level of Druid class significantly. We still don’t have that many Heal synergies, not to mention good Heal cards themselves (because let’s be real, Healing Touch is not good). But one of the biggest flaws is not in the cards themselves, but in the heal mechanic. The thing is, you can’t heal to more than 30. If you’re at full, which is very common when you play against any kind of Control or Combo deck, then you can’t activate any of your synergies, because – well – you can’t heal yourself. While you still can heal your minions, first you need to stick one and then damage it somehow – again, not the easiest task in those matchups. The same problem was the bane of Heal Paladin builds that never really took off (even though High Priest Thekal fixed those somewhat, it was still only 1 card out of 30).
This is the main reason why a Lucentbark Druid, which seems absolutely amazing vs slower decks, doesn’t really work that well. Sure – you can get five 4/8’s on the board that will revive themselves over and over again… as long as you have something to heal, which is often not the case. So you end up with a board full of Dormant minions that you can’t do anything with, until you manage to take some damage (usually by Hero Powering opponent’s minions) – but it’s just too slow.
But why doesn’t Crystal Stag work, then? You only need to restore 5 health, once, throughout entire game. Well, first of all, it doesn’t work, because the whole Heal package doesn’t work well enough. Again – you don’t really take damage in Control matchups for a looong time. And while you do against Aggro – a) you don’t have too many good, cheap heal cards that can activate Stag early and b) healing is not necessarily good against Aggro. Or to be more precise – healing is great AFTER you’ve stabilized. But spending your early/mid game turns healing is pointless. You need to clear the board first, then healing can do something. And let’s be honest, Druid doesn’t have great board clears now, not even good board stalls (while the card was really annoying to face, Druid REALLY needed that Spreading Plague to be competitive against board floods). That’s why Heal Druid struggles against both fast and slow decks.
And to not to base this whole argument only on anecdotes, Lucentbark and Crystal Power have less than 1% play rate (and ~44% win rate), while Crystal Stag and Lifeweaver are way worse, with ~0.1% play rate and ~40-41% win rate. That’s really, really not good. It’s still not over and if Blizzard decides to push the synergies more, it might actually work. But we would need both more ways to heal and more pay-off cards, as well as something along the lines of Paladin’s Thekal.
Unidentified Contract – Rated #28 out of 135
To be frank, if someone asked me what possible contracts can you get out of this card, I wouldn’t know. I have seen the card in game maybe once or twice, early in the expansion, during the experimental phase. Then – nothing.
I think that Unidentified Contract is another victim of Preparation. For a while already, most of the Rogue spells were overpriced. Because if they weren’t, we ended up with something like Raiding Party – a broken combo with Prep. Unidentified Contract is not a bad card, it just feels awkward at 6 mana in a class that is all about tempo. Even with the pre-nerf Prep, 3 mana was a bit too much for a 2 cards combo. I honestly think that with the Prep nerfed, it could become 5 mana and it would be balanced. Strong – yes, but not too strong.
Individual effects of the card (I’ve just checked them out again!) are not that bad, but pretty inconsistent. Which ones you get make the card either weak or powerful depending on the deck you play and the matchup. For example, if it always gave you two Coins, I bet that it would see way more play – especially in Miracle build. But e.g. casting Betrayal is very situational – if there’s a big minion you want to kill, it’s often the only one on the board. Adding a copy of destroyed minion to your hand is also a bit awkward. Again, Rogues are about tempo, and you often don’t need a copy of an expensive minion in your hand. Especially if you target something like Mountain Giant (one of the most common big minions in the current meta) – you might not even have enough cards in your hand to cast it for cheap, so it will often be a dead card for a while. If you hit the right effect (for the situation, the deck you play and the deck you face), it can be incredibly strong. But other times, you just miss completely and it’s basically a more expensive Assassinate.
Right now, it’s played in 0.2% of the decks, with an average win rate of 43%. Its played win rate is only slightly higher than Assassinate’s, which tells a lot.
Potion Vendor – Rated #22 out of 135
Out of the high rated cards, Potion Vendor is one of the most surprising. To be completely fair, it looks like an okay card, but rating it as one of the better from the entire expansion? I really don’t see why. Especially since Happy Ghoul, the biggest potential reason to play it, has rotated out at the same moment Rise of Shadows was released.
The card is a 1 mana version of Fungal Enchanter. Of course, scaling down the stats and mana cost of a card while leaving the same effect is usually positive. And I honestly think that if Potion Vendor was available, Zoo would prefer it over Fungal Enchanter. Or maybe run both and replace Voodoo Doctor instead. But – again – the biggest reason to run it in the first place was Happy Ghoul. No other common deck has played it, not even close.
There’s not much I can say about the card. There’s simply no real reason to play it in Standard right now. Maybe if we get some more heal synergies in classes like Druid or maybe Priest? Hard to say. But right now it’s played in ~0.1% of the decks with ~43% win rate.
Plot Twist – Rated #16 out of 135
Plot Twist is, in my opinion, one of the coolest cards from Rise of Shadows. But it was also one of the most overrated ones. It’s a cool concept in theory – you basically get a completely new hand whenever you want. Since Warlock operates on big hands, it should be very easy to find whatever you want. You’re looking for healing? Just Plot Twist and you get it! AoE? Same thing! But as sweet as it sounds, it’s important to note that it costs 2 mana AND a card, while it doesn’t really give you any tempo or value by itself. In order for it to work, you really need to combo it.
And yeah, there ARE some cards that combo well with it. Aranasi Broodmother heals you for 4 when you draw her – which is very likely after playing Plot Twist. If you combo it with Dollmaster Dorian or – even better – Fel Lord Betrug, you can get some nice tempo advantage (and potentially benefit from some Deathrattles, like Cairne Bloodhoof). But not only those combos come late and are pretty inconsistent, but to be honest, they don’t really “win” you the game. If you build your entire deck around a card, you really want it to do something impressive. And Plot Twist combos are cool, but lack that game winning factor.
I believe that the card might have some potential, and one day it might actually see play. Especially in Wild – a format where you will only get more and more synergies with time. But right now, it just doesn’t work. While it’s a bit more popular than some of the cards here (at 0.4%), win rate of the decks its played in is the lowest, at only… 34%.
Convincing Infiltrator – Rated #9 out of 135
Convincing Infiltrator is a classic example of a card that was rated to be one of the best in the expansion, but turned out to be mediocre at best. It’s a bit like a miniature version of Obsidian Statue. It’s a Taunt with low Attack / high Health combination and a Deathrattle that kills a random minion. It has much weaker stats, and lacks Lifesteal, but it also costs 4 mana less. Of course, that’s a big difference, but given that Obsidian Statue was often cheated out and then resurrected, the fact that it costed not always mattered.
Infiltrator is an okay card, but it’s not impressive. It sees play in one deck – Resurrect / Wall Priest – and it’s not a must-have staple (when we look at the highest win rate decks, sometimes it is there, other times it’s not). The thing is, 2/6 Stats for 5 mana are weak (you wouldn’t even play a 4 mana 2/6 Taunt – hence Stegodon seeing no play), and the effect is also not always amazing. Against board flood decks, clearing one extra minion might not matter much, and Control decks will often kill it without playing any minions (and if they already have something, they will often just 1 for 1 it). Of course, it’s not an useless effect – at times, it can win you the game, especially if you hit the right minion. It can also prevent your opponent from dropping something big and force him to deal with this instead. If you revive it in the late game, it can make things a bit awkward for your opponent. But for the most part, it’s weaker than Obsidian Statue, since when you revive stuff, you don’t really care how much it costed initially (and +2/+2 and Lifesteal goes a long way).
Right now, Convinced Infiltrator sees play in 3.2% decks on the ladder, with an average win rate of 50%. Not bad, but definitely not “Top 10 of the expansion” good.
Madame Lazul – Rated #7 out of 135
Madame Lazul is an interesting case. Even though it was CLEARLY overrated this expansion, I can kind of see why. 3 mana 3/2 that gives you extra information and value (and since you Discover, the chances that you will get something completely useless is quite lower than with let’s say Mind Vision). It’s a bit like Curious Glimmerroot, but more consistent (although I have to say that being one health down really hurts against all the 2 attack minions).
The biggest issue with Madame Lazul is that not only Priest class is not in a good spot, but Control Priest in particular is nearly non-existent. You don’t want to play Lazul in Combo Priest, you don’t want to play her in Resurrect Priest, so Control is your best bet. But the deck is no longer viable after rotation.
To be honest, even if Control Priest DID work, I still think that Lazul was a bit overrated. Even in the best case scenario, it’s not a card you build your deck around, it’s not a card that really makes you think that you did something overpowered, broken etc. It’s just an okay value tool strapped onto a 3/2 body.
And I don’t want to beat a dead horse, but just for the sake of consistency with previous entries, Madame Lazul is played in 0.3% of the decks right now with an average win rate of 40%. What’s even more striking is that her PLAYED win rate is even lower, at only 37%. Which might not necessarily imply that, but there’s a chance that the decks that run her would be better off without her.
Kalecgos – Rated #3 out of 135
Wait, what? Kalecgos is on the list of the most overrated cards? Oh yes, yes it is. While you might find it weird, remember the definition of an overrated card. Kalecgos is not a bad card by any means, but it was rated to be one of the strongest in the set. While in reality, he’s clearly not. He sees meta play in only a single deck – Conjurer Mage – and even there he’s not a key card. It’s good, but you can easily play it without him. Well, there’s also Freeze Mage, but you can’t really call it a meta deck at this point.
To put some numbers before you – right now it’s played in 3.7% of decks on the ladder, win an average win rate of ~50%. Admittedly, average played win rate is ~53%, but that’s mostly because those decks are pretty slow, so just the fact that you survived long enough to drop your 10 mana bomb means that you’re more likely to win the game. However, the 3.7% number makes it only 41th most popular card from Rise of Shadows. It’s also nowhere near close to the highest win rate cards (no matter if you sort by deck win rate or played win rate).
So what’s the problem with Kalecgos, exactly? First of all – there’s no “problem” per se, it’s a solid card. But not amazing, just solid. The biggest downside is mana cost. 10 mana is A LOT, only a few decks can actually afford to play a 10 mana card and get away with it. Second of all, in order to take full advantage of him, you also want to play some big spells. While yes, you DISCOVER the spell and you can play it immediately, you get most of its effect if you use an expensive spell (and Mage has lots, LOTS of cheap spells that dilute the discover pool). Then, let’s be honest, 4/12 stats without Taunt aren’t exactly amazing for 10 mana.
It doesn’t see as much play as some might have expected heavily because Conjurer Mage is far from a perfect deck for it. It’s more of a Midrange deck than a Control one + it doesn’t even run that many expensive spells (many builds use Power of Creation, which is a great combo, but that’s all). I believe that it would find a better place in some kind of Control Mage, or in Freeze Mage if it became more mainstream. But I don’t think that it will ever be as good as many of you have imagined. To put it simply, it’s a 10 mana card that doesn’t completely swing the game in your favor (which you usually expect from such expensive cards), it’s just an okay value-tempo addition. Unless they print some expensive spell that has amazing synergy with it – then it has a chance to start seeing more and more play.
