How Will Anomalies Affect Deck-Building and the Hearthstone Meta?

Well, this is it. The madness of Yogg-Saron has descended upon almost every constructed Hearthstone format. Standard, Wild, Twist, and Arena have all been infected. Duels was already too crazy for Yogg-Saron to bother doing more to it and has been spared further madness. (In other words, making the anomalies work properly with all possible Duels combinations was an impossible task.)

For one week starting on September 19, there will be a random anomaly in every game of Hearthstone. From there until the next expansion patch, patch 28.0, there will be a random anomaly in 25% of Hearthstone games. Furthermore, if either player has Cho'gall, Twilight Chieftain in their deck, there is a 25% chance for that game to have another anomaly. If both players are running Cho’gall, the other anomaly is guaranteed for the game.

It is going to be a crazy week. But is it all just pure madness, or are there ways to benefit from the anomalies? Let’s investigate.

The 20 Anomalies

There are 20 anomalies in the game, and each of them is equally likely to be selected in each game. Therefore, each anomaly has a 5% appearance rate. If your deck automatically loses to a specific anomaly, you will simply concede 5% of your games. In a game where 60% is a phenomenal win rate, that is a major effect over a large number of games. Over small sample sizes, anything can happen.

You get to see the anomaly or anomalies affecting the game before you mulligan, so you can take its effect into account already before your first turn.

But are any anomalies that fatal? Let’s take a look at them all.

Twist Reality: After a player plays a card this game, shuffle a copy into their deck. This anomaly punishes combo decks. Imagine trying to find your combo pieces, but instead shuffling cards that draw more cards into your deck in an endless cycle. The anomaly also punishes mill and fatigue decks, but those are not around much anyway.

Approaching Nightmare: Both players start with Yogg-Saron, Hope's End in their hand. This anomaly is largely inconsequential given that the average game length is fewer than 10 turns, and Yogg-Saron costs 10 mana to play. It can affect games that go long and favor spell-heavy decks. It can also potentially favor Druid decks that can ramp and use Yogg-Saron to stabilize.

Opportunity Knocks: The first card drawn on a player’s turn is one they can afford to play. Makes all decks more consistent, which is good for everyone. Slightly more beneficial for greedy, inconsistent decks. Prince Renathal decks will rejoice from this one.

Shifting Fate: Both players start with Gear Shift in their hand. Excellent anomaly for aggressive decks that risk running out of cards, but not awful for slower decks that want to get rid of some useless cards in favor of better ones during the game.

Light in the Dark: Both players’ Hero Powers cost (1) less. This is Genn Greymane effect without the even cards restriction. Especially good for decks like Totem Shaman that want to use their Hero Power a lot.

Gift of Gluttony: Both players start with two more drawn cards. Adds more consistency to the match. Great for decks like Handlock in Twist, but there are not many decks that directly benefit from having cards in hand. Useful both for aggro decks that may run out of resources and for control decks that want to search for answers.

Shifting Futures: Both players start with 2 copies of Shifter Zerus in their hand. Anything can happen with this one. Generally favors minion-based decks as slower decks that try to control the board may not find playing random minions useful unless they roll some perfect ones.

Control the Makers: Both heroes have +1 Attack on their turns. Generally favors aggressive decks that can chip in more damage. Sure, slower decks can use their face to remove threats, but they still take damage if they do.

Severed Souls: Both heroes start with +5 Health. This anomaly is the Prince Renathal effect without making your deck less consistent. Heavily favors control and combo decks that gain more survivability from this.

Surging Inspiration: Both heroes start with upgraded Hero Powers. Baku the Mooneater or Justicar Trueheart effect without any deck-building requirements. Benefits decks that enjoy their Hero Powers, such as Control Warrior and Token Paladin.

Driven to Greed: Whenever a player ends their turn with unspent Mana, they get a Coin. Benefits slow decks that can transfer mana from one turn to the next to get to their big cards faster.

Driven to Excess: Whenever a player ends their turn with unspent Mana, they draw a card. Why tap and spend two mana and two Health for a card, when you can just leave one mana unspent? Can help slow decks to find their answers and very aggressive decks to not run out of resources. Mostly hurts midrange decks that want to play stuff on curve every turn.

Uncontrollable Growth: Both players start with an extra Mana Crystal. Helps slower decks to access their big plays faster.

Seeing Double: Both players start with 2 cards copied from the other player’s hand. Makes mulligan decisions more important. How do you keep cards that help you but do not help your opponent?

Unimaginable Horrors: Both players Discover a new basic Hero Power on their first turn. Completely destroys decks that rely on their Hero Power, such as Hero Power Druid. Hurts Even and Odd decks. Hurts Warlock a lot. One of the most impactful anomalies.

Fortifications: At the end of each player’s turns, give a random one of their minions +1 Health. Greatly favors aggressive, board-based decks.

Fast Track: Reduce the Cost of all cards in both players’ starting hands by (1). Makes mulligan even more important. Control decks can have cheaper answers. Decks like Mech Rogue can have opening hands that are nigh impossible to fight against.

Your Eyes Betray You: Both players’ cards are Golden. This anomaly does not downgrade your Diamond and Signature cards. Either way, it does not affect the game at all, this is a regular game of Hearthstone.

Army of the Corrupted: The first minion played on each player’s turns costs (1) less. Favors minion-based, aggressive, and midrange decks.

Spread of Corruption: The first spell played on each player’s turns costs (1) less. Favors spell-based and control decks.

Anomalies, Analyzed

Over a single night of Hearthstone, anything can happen in the new anomaly world. It is only over large sample sizes that we can start to see trends. It will also be difficult to discern the effect of anomalies from the effect of the mini-set that was released at the same time. However, some effects seem plausible.

Decks that rely on their Hero Power will be affected most. You will lose your Hero Power 5% of the time, so if your strategy is built around that, you can expect to see a lower win rate. This affects Even and Odd decks in Wild, and decks like Hero Power Druid and Warlock in Standard. Discard Warlock hardly has time to tap anyway and is largely unaffected. Odd decks also sometimes lose their Hero Power advantage, as you cannot upgrade an upgraded Hero Power. Even decks may get to enjoy zero-cost Hero Powers when the right anomaly arrives.

Decks with limited damage potential will be hurt. With earlier answers to limited boards and more Health, decks that have a brief window of opportunity to win a game will be at a disadvantage. Traditional Face Hunter comes to mind, which could be relevant in Twist, although such decks are few and far between in the current meta in both Standard and Wild.

Decks that can snowball early will benefit. Whether it is Mech Rogue in Standard or Mech Paladin in Wild, there are multiple anomalies that can help you get your snowball rolling. Cheaper starting hands, cheaper minions, and additional health for minions can all help you scale up faster than usual. While there are some anomalies that can help opponents remove your minions, it is the snowballing nature of these decks that will still make their minions difficult to remove.

Minion-based decks will be happy. There are more anomalies that favor minions than there are anomalies that favor spells. If you have a minion-based, aggressive strategy that can snowball your threats, you are in a perfect position.

The thing is, with 20 anomalies, all of them equally likely, it will take a lot of games to see the full effects. There is a good chance that you will not even encounter all the different anomalies in one full evening of Hearthstone.

You can play with and around most anomalies, but there are two killers in the mix:

• Unimaginable Horrors: Both players Discover a new basic Hero Power on their first turn. This punishes any Hero Power decks incredibly hard.
• Twist Reality: After a player plays a card this game, shuffle a copy into their deck. This devastates combo decks.

If you want to optimize your win rate, you do not want to play Hero Power or combo decks during the first anomaly week. If you usually win a little more than half of your games and now will basically concede the ones with your worst anomaly, that is around a 3% reduction to your win rate and may make your deck unviable. After the first week, the anomaly appearance rate goes down to 25%, so their effect on your overall win rate goes down to around 1%. It still continues to affect optimal meta choices, but no longer turns a good deck into an unviable one.

If Blizzard were to remove Unimaginable Horrors and Twist Reality from the pool, all archetypes would be more evenly affected. Minion-based decks would continue to have a slight bonus from the anomalies, but nothing major. As long as those two remain in the pool, you will want to steer clear of some archetypes to optimize your expected win rate.