Mr. Hunter

Midrange (Mr.) Hunter

Is midrange viable again? Probably not.

When to play Midrange

To apply a rock, paper, scissors analogy:

• Midrange is like paper, where aggro is scissors, and control is rock.
• Midrange loses to Aggro
• Midrange ties Midrange
• Midrange beats Control

The above is a gross generalization of the matchups. But it should give you a general idea of the meta you want to play Midrange against: Control Heavy.

I believe the meta, at least in the beginning, will be control heavy thanks to how well the new class Death Knight builds a control-style. Even more aggressive Death Knight decks that I’ve seen theorycrafted so far seem to at most be midrange-level aggressive. 

Because of this, we expect to lose against aggro matchups. Because aggro matchups are pretty quick, I’d just play ’em anyways instead of outright conceding (since you do have a chance of winning). 

We build our deck to win against other midrange decks, and more specifically, to win against control decks.

If a meta’s spread is such that:

• 2 in 10 games are against an aggro deck
• 5 in 10 are against a control deck
• 3 in 10 games are against a midrange deck

Then you have:

• aggro: 15% (matches) * 15% (winrate) = 2.25% winrate
• control: 60% (matches) * 80% (winrate) = 48% winrate
• midrange: 25% (matches) * 50% (winrate) = 12.5% winrate

Estimated 62.75% winrate deck (let’s just round up to 63%). Your winrate is directly tied to how well you use the deck, but more importantly, the stance of the meta (which can fluctuate by day and by rank). 

If there are 5 divisions, each with 10 levels, and each with 3 stars, then you’d need to net-gain 150 stars to hit legend. Assuming no win streaks, taking winrate into account, where x is the wins you’d need to hit legend:

• 150 = x * 0.63
• 150 / 0.63 = x 
• 238 (rounded up) = how many wins you’d need to hit legend

Now, this deck won’t have a 63% winrate, this is just a crude estimation for midrange decks at-whole given a certain meta-spread (as previously defined).

Mulligan

Pretty typical midrange desires:

• Early pressure via early minion curve => (going 1st) Arms Dealer into Scourge Tamer into Drakkari Embalmer; (going 2nd) Or Foul Egg + Banshee into Scourge Tamer into Drakkari Embalmer. 
• Even if you have Foul Egg + Bone Flinger, and Foul Egg doesn’t die, play Bone Flinger turn-2 if you don’t have another turn-2 play. A 2/3 undead isn’t great, but it’s better than hero power on 2. 

Use common sense:

• If you know that your enemy will try to kill Foul Egg to reduce value off of it, keep Bone Flinger. 
• If you know that your enemy is aggressive, then you know you can win the late-game. Keep the same mulligan and fight for board control — prioritizing your health staying up. You’re no longer focused on value, rather just staying alive (because your cards are innately higher-value than there’s, you just have to live long enough to overwhelm them with that value)
• If you know that you cannot beat your opponent in the late-game, fight for safe board control (not over committing when you know there’s a good chance they have a board clear), and in these games it’s preferred to sacrifice health over board state where you can (e.g. trading Harpoon Gun into an enemy minion to kill it, rather than throwing a friendly minion at it which would leave it vulnerable to clear)

Tech Choices

• Doggie Biscuit: Provides extra sustain to squishy minions, and can help generate value off Arms Dealer and Foul Egg. Niche, but can be traded to get rush on Mountain Bears, and Invincible.
• Infectious Ghoul: A pretty high-value gambit; a win-more card. I believe this will help maintain board presence against matchups that are worried about clearing your board (midrange and control). If the meta leans aggro then avoid this tech choice like the plague.
• Wing Commander Ichman: Another pretty high-value gambit. Unlike infectious ghoul, it can be used as a comeback card rather than just a win-more card. You really want your opponent dead before turn 9 ideally, so hopefully you’re playing this off of Bonelord Frostwhisper’s effect. If you are, then you just win (assuming they don’t have a super-clear like Twisting Nether). I believe this card helps guarantee the midrange matchup wins, and the control matchups that use more minions.
• Bonelord Frostwhisper: Yet another high-value gambit. Relies on a strong early game to secure the win turn 6+. Synergizes well with Infectious Ghoul, token-card generated from Kazakus, and the other 7+ cost core-cards (i.e. Hydralodon, Mountain Bear, Invincible).

Alternatives

You don’t really want to play this deck if the meta is aggro-heavy, since then you’d have to either try to win the aggro matchup, or you’d have to try and win as control, and either way you’d need to make enough changes to the deck that it just wouldn’t be the same deck anymore.

If you’re really loving the deck, but you’re seeing *slightly* more aggression in the meta, maybe try these replacements:

• -1 Bonelord Frostwhisper
• -1 Wing Commander Ichman
• -2 Infectious Ghouls
• +2 Candleshot
• +2 Shockspitter 

These replacements are likely better for the deck as a whole anyway, but I think that the current (higher-value, higher-risk) version encapsulates the vision I had for this deck better: Curb stomp the mass amounts of Death Knights on release.

Core Cards

These are the cards that I believe can’t be changed without changing the entire deck:

• Arms Dealer: t1 undead
• Banshee : t1 undead, gives value to Foul Egg
• Foul Egg: Persistence/durability in board presence (provides value after cleared)
• Bone Flinger: t2 undead
• Scourge Tamer: t2 undead, provides a flexible card that is more reactive thanks to “build a card” mechanic
• Drakkari Embalmer: t3 undead, its effect is alright, its stats are alright, but its also undead which synergizes well with our deck (Banshee, Arms Dealer, Bone Flinger, Nerubian Vizier, and Invincible)
• Nerubian Vizier: t3 undead, its effect is good, its stats are meh, but its also undead which synergizes well with our deck (Banshee, Arms Dealer, Bone Flinger, Nerubian Vizier, and Invincible)
• Harpoon Gun: Can be used as minion clear, pressure, and helps make our incredibly high-value late game cards come into play earlier. If this card is nerfed again, or removed from the meta, this deck dies.
• Hydralodon: A grossly high-value 7 drop that is a board clear + board generator all in one. Absolute monster of a card that only grows in value with your opponent’s board presence. 
• Mountain Bear: Disgusting card that deserves to be nerfed, if you’re against control and you draw harpoon gun, which gets you a mountain bear, then your winrate likelihood just leaped up. Mountain bear on 5 against aggro kills, especially if your mulligan provided you with the means of controlling the board. 
• Invincible: Incredibly likelihood of +5/+5 and taunt to an existing minion (that’s likely 5 extra damage going face immediately), and it’s a 5/5 with taunt itself. It is both an incredibly strong shield and an incredibly sharp sword. If silence isn’t present in the meta, which I strongly believe there won’t be much silence in the meta, then you’re very likely getting 20/20 worth of stats + up to 3 taunts in this card’s lifecyle. The idea — the hope — is that you’re able to always kill your opponent before seeing this card reborn, as the extra 5 damage.