Balance Changes Are Coming Next Week – What Could They Mean for the Meta?

The Hearthstone Standard meta has been out of balance since the release of Forged in the Barrens. The annual Standard rotation, the new Core set, and the new expansion combined into a perfect storm that Blizzard was unable to fully balance, and the number of good decks has been at an all-time low with Paladin, Mage, and Rogue dominating the ladder.

Data helps solve all ills, and Blizzard has already announced that a balance patch is coming next week. Unfortunately, we are still waiting for details on the exact changes. We know that Paladin, Mage, Rogue, and Neutral cards will be affected and that the are six changes coming overall.

In this article, I take a look at the main candidates for nerfs, how they could be changed, and what could it all mean for the game.

Mage: Deck of Lunacy and Refreshing Spring Water

Deck of Lunacy is the obvious main candidate for a Mage nerf. It is currently the highest mulligan win rate card in the game, clocking in an impressive 68.5% win rate when drawn at the start of the game even in high Legend. Rank has very little effect on how good Deck of Lunacy is: whether you’re a Bronze player or a Legend player, it has the same effect on the game. The card’s drawn win rate is equally impressive and hardly moves as rank changes.

The card is thus clearly overtuned for the current power level of the game, and almost certain to be nerfed.

Blizzard usually likes to change cards by changing a single number on them, most often mana cost when it comes to spells. But how much is enough? Given the current power level of Deck of Lunacy, I would not be surprised if its mana cost was increased straight to four mana. If it was changed to three mana, it might still be too strong, and that is a risk not worth taking, given that the No Minion Mage archetype as such is viable even without the card: many players used no-Lunacy lists early in the expansion, and before Lunacy took over everything, those lists were still posting solid above-50% win rates. There would be no harm done if that would be the future of the archetype and Deck of Lunacy was killed.

The second-strongest card in Mage is Refreshing Spring Water. Notably, Refreshing Spring Water is currently a stronger keep in the mulligan than Font of Power, which is stunning for a four-mana card compared to a one-mana card. Refreshing Spring Water is also incredibly strong in Wild Mage decks, although those decks are not as dominant as Standard Mage decks. In Standard format, Refreshing Spring Water is also weaker without Deck of Lunacy: drawing cards for free is always strong, but it’s even stronger when those cards are heavily discounted.

Paladin: Sword of the Fallen and Others

Paladin has been incredibly strong for a long time, and Forged in the Barrens has brought the deck to unprecedented dominance: Secret Libram Paladin has no bad matchups whatsoever. While Mage can be straightforward to fix with a simple Deck of Lunacy nerf, Paladin is much more difficult.

The obvious main candidate is Sword of the Fallen, which is the second-best individual card in the game, right behind Deck of Lunacy. Drawing and playing cards for free is just incredibly strong, and the most worrying part is that Sword of the Fallen looks great even later in the game if you cannot find it in your mulligan.

Blizzard usually likes to change just one number if at all possible, but I’m not sure if that’s enough for the divine Sword. Changing it from a 1/3 to a 1/2 means that it still snowballs the early game by playing two Paladin Secrets right at the start of the game and on-curve for Northwatch Commander. Changing the Sword’s mana cost from 2 to 3 makes it slower, but it still retains incredible value. I would even be inclined to hope that it would be changed into a three-mana 2/2 to make it both slower and provide less value. It is more likely that Blizzard will only touch one value though. In that case, changing the mana cost would be a stronger change as it would affect the Sword’s dominance at the start of the game.

However, changing the Sword of the Fallen alone might not be enough to bring Paladin in line with the other classes. Paladin got to keep their entire Libram package through the rotation, and their toolkit is simply ahead of all the competition. Therefore, it might be worth considering some changes to this basic toolkit.

Originally, Paladin’s Libram package was not strong enough, and Aldor Attendant was changed from a two-drop to a one-drop to give the Paladin more immediate access to the board. Now, Paladin’s early-game toolkit is overpowering. Reverting the Aldor Attendant buff would be one way to address the issue, but I would like to see a stat change instead: if Aldor Attendant was a 1/2 instead of a 1/3, it would be easier to remove and prevent Paladin from snowballing with buffs at the start of the game without removing their access to a one-drop.

Rogue: Jandice Barov

Rogue has a couple of popular archetypes: Watch Post Rogue and Poison Rogue. Poison Rogue is largely a symptom of Mage dominance, a fast aggro deck that ignores board and uses weapons to go face. There are already good counters to it, and while it might be too strong, it is too early to say how it would manage in a different meta where minions were played on the board. Therefore, the more likely nerf target is Watch Post Rogue.

Watch Post Rogue stalls the game by playing Watch Posts, and then wins through Kazakus, Golem Shaper and Jandice Barov, preferably played multiple times thanks to Shadowstep. There are also Secret and Miracle variants of the same concept and the one thing they all have in common is Jandice Barov dominating the performance charts.

Jandice Barov became a lot stronger in the rotation as Desert Obelisk and Chromatic Egg rotated out of Standard format and no new low-rolls were added to the five-drop pool with Forged in the Barrens.

The most simple nerf to Jandice Barov is to increase her mana cost by one to make her a little slower and give other decks some more time to prepare.

Neutral: Watch Posts and Pen Flinger

Watch Posts have been highly problematic in the early days of Forged in the Barrens. Far Watch Post and Mor'shan Watch Post do one of the worst things that can happen in a game: they prevent the other player from playing. Blizzard chose not to include forced discards from hand in the original Hearthstone design because losing your opportunities to play is such a terrible feeling. Now, Watch Posts are bringing this feeling into the game and in an effective form too.

Ogremancer is able to shut down some decks, but there are plenty of answers to it because there are far more minions than spells in the game and it comes online late enough that even a spell deck can use hard-removal on it. Far Watch Post at two mana forces the opponent to play a turn behind until they muster the strength to remove a 2/4 minion, and Mor'shan Watch Post can devastate minion-based decks, which are the majority of all possible Hearthstone decks. In constructed, Far Watch Post is the more dominant Watch Post, while in Arena, it is Mor'shan Watch Post that dominates the meta.

Both Watch Posts are conceptually problematic as they stop players from playing their cards and enjoying the game – the exact opposite of what Hearthstone’s design philosophy has been all about. There is no simple way to walk back on the basic design, so the most likely nerf to Watch Posts would be to make them more expensive to stop them from affecting the game so early.

Then there’s Pen Flinger. Thanks to its Spellburst effect, Pen Flinger is the most played card in the game by a large margin as it is played more than three times as often as any other card in the game. That’s a lot of Hey losers! Pen Flinger is strong, sees play in a variety of decks, and makes the games much slower. Those are more than enough reasons to change the card.

Pen Flinger could be changed to cost two mana, which would completely kill the card. It could also be changed to only target minions, which could potentially leave it with some niche play in a deck like Libram Paladin. The nicest part about nerfing Pen Flinger is that it would affect Paladin and Rogue the most, and those are some of the strongest classes already.

You Can Only Choose Six

I’ve already highlighted eight potential nerf targets, and there would be even more potential targets in Paladin. However, we already know that six cards will be changed, so which ones are those going to be? If I were to bet on the matter, I’d bet on Deck of Lunacy, Sword of the Fallen, Jandice Barov, Far Watch Post, Mor'shan Watch Post, and Pen Flinger. I’m least certain about Mor'shan Watch Post, but it would have the added benefit of helping out Arena alongside Standard.

So, if those cards were to be changed, how would that change the meta?

Paladin would take a hit, but it would still survive and probably remain one of the top decks. That’s why I’m a little uncertain whether Mor'shan Watch Post will be touched or if Blizzard will target two Paladin cards to give the class a more severe blow. But let’s say Paladin gets off easy and remains a top-tier deck, albeit one that now has challengers.

No Minion Mage is hit, but it will be fine as well, we already saw no-Lunacy lists earlier in the expansion and the archetype is viable without Deck of Lunacy.

Rogue would ditch the Watch Posts and continue refining the Secret and Miracle approaches as well as continue to refine pure aggro lists.

Token Druid would rise as many of its worst matchups would become somewhat better, but there would also be new threats to it, such as Rush Warrior, which could become a real deck and bring Warrior back to the meta. Shaman would have more space to breathe, but the aggressive decks would have to contest with Priest returning to the stage, at least if Priest can find a way to dodge Control Warlock, which would continue to prey upon the class. Control decks would continue to be challenged by the strong tempo of others, including Deathrattle Demon Hunter and Midrange Demon Hunter, which are currently just a little too weak to succeed.

Overall, there would be much more space to innovate and more classes could become viable. I am excited about the upcoming balance patch and can’t wait to find out the full details. Even a moderate nerf to the current three top classes could rejuvenate at least Druid, Demon Hunter, and Warrior, and possibly others as well, including Priest. Wait, do we want to see Priest return to the meta? It’s best to be careful what you wish for. Either way, next week will be an important week for Hearthstone!