14 Hearthstone Cards Will Be Changed Next Week, But Which Ones? Nerf, Buff and Ban Predictions!

Blizzard confirmed that balance changes had been decided last Friday, so I have been waiting for the detailed patch notes all week. Sadly, the patch notes did not arrive this week, but we did receive confirmation that the patch is coming on Tuesday and that full details will arrive early next week.

We also got this teaser:

5 Nerfs (Warlock, Shaman, DH)
1 Redesign (Priest)
1 Ban (Warlock)
7 Buffs (Hunter, Mage, Warrior)

Nerfs looking to slow things down further. Buffs looking at recent archetypes that didn’t hit as well as we want, mix of light + medium changes. https://t.co/2yBftXgV3a

— Alec Dawson (@GW_Alec) September 16, 2021

There will be 5 nerfs (Warlock, Shaman, Demon Hunter), 1 redesign (Priest), 1 ban (Warlock), and 7 buffs (Hunter, Mage, Warrior). That’s 14 changes, so this is a major balance patch!

Priest Redesign: Farewell to Mindrender Illucia?

There is only one real candidate for the Priest redesign, right? It has got to be Mindrender Illucia. Illucia originally gained fame as a combo disruption piece, and it was a bit too effective at two mana, so it was later nerfed to three mana, but United in Stormwind and the rise of Aggro Shadow Priest brought Illucia’s talents to light in a brand new way: as a way to get an extra turn by grabbing the opponent’s hand for one turn to prevent them from fighting back against your early board.

Right now, Mindrender Illucia is the best-performing card in Aggro Shadow Priest, rocking an impressive 56.9% drawn win rate in the most popular list over more than 60,000 games. That’s more than a full percentage point above the second-best card in the deck, Voidtouched Attendant, and more than two percentage points ahead of Disciplinarian Gandling. Illucia is more than four percentage points better than the fourth-best card in the deck, and with a sample size that large, such a difference is simply stunning.

I expect Illucia to be removed from Aggro Shadow Priest’s toolkit and kept only as a control deck card. Blizzard no longer kills cards when it can be avoided, so it is unlikely that we would see Illucia’s new effect to be +1 Attack to your Charge minions. If Illucia gave you the opponent’s hand to play without taking your own hand away for a turn, it would likely be too strong in its original role, essentially having no downside at all. This is a card that was already nerfed for its control deck role! One option would be to have Illucia Discover a card from the opponent’s hand and play it or steal it. Depending on the effect, the mana cost might have to be tweaked as well. This way, Illucia could still disrupt combo decks, albeit less reliably, and would have no immediate aggro uses.

Warlock Ban and Nerfs

Blizzard has only banned one card from constructed play so far: Stealer of Souls is banned from Wild. So, what are they going to ban this time?

Warlock is all over Wild, and there are some cards that really define the current Warlock decks. Crystallizer is remarkable, but it is a Neutral card, so I don’t think it fits the Warlock ban. Touch of the Nathrezim and Hand of Gul'dan are getting a lot done, but ban-worthy? Unlikely. The card I expect to be banned from Wild is The Demon Seed. Evenlock is still around, but the vast majority of Warlock decks in Wild are Quest Warlocks, and it is hard to see how they can be reined in and kept in check for expansions to come if the Questline is allowed to stay.

Could the ban affect Standard as well? That would be a drastic move, but unlikely, as no matter how strong Quest Warlock is in Standard, the more limited card pool ensures that it has healthy competition. Besides, if they banned The Demon Seed from Standard, there would be no need for Warlock nerfs, which we know are also coming!

The nerfs are more difficult to predict. There will be five nerfs across three classes, so we don’t even know exactly how many Warlock cards will be nerfed. They will be light and medium changes that aim to slow things down, so what in Warlock fits that theme? Warlock also has two different archetypes at the top, the Giants version, and the OTK version, which further complicates things. Will both of them be hit, or only one?

Looking at the best-performing Warlock cards, there’s Flesh Giant, Backfire, Soul Rend, Touch of the Nathrezim, and Hand of Gul'dan. Runed Mithril Rod does not appear that high in the statistics despite getting a lot of attention on social media.

If Blizzard wants to slow things down, it is unlikely that they would touch the defensive tools, so that would rule out Soul Rend and Touch of the Nathrezim. If they want to hit both main Warlock archetypes, they probably need to nerf at least two Warlock cards. Backfire is getting a lot of work done in both decks, and obviously, they both run The Demon Seed as well, but would a nerf to Backfire do enough to stop the Flesh Giants and would they both nerf and ban the Questline?

I expect another nerf to Flesh Giant, its mana cost is steadily going up and there is no reason to stop now! Would it go to 11 mana or all the way to 12 mana, though? I suppose going one mana at a time is more coherent considering Blizzard’s overall approach. I also expect Backfire to be hit. Mana cost, number of cards drawn, the amount of damage taken, all levers could be pulled to weaken its synergy with the Questline.

Demon Hunter Nerfs

Demon Hunter has multiple viable decks, so which ones are we talking about when it comes to nerfs? Fel Demon Hunter and Deathrattle Demon Hunter are viable, but they never roll you out of the game quickly. If the goal is to slow things down, we have to be talking about some of the Demon Hunter Questline decks.

The most notable outlier in Quest Demon Hunter is Irebound Brute. Sometimes you just face a boardful of free Brutes early in the game and can concede at will. With the stated goal of slowing things down, Irebound Brute has got to be a target. I could even see its cost go up by two mana, if any lessons have been learned from the repetitive nerfing of Flesh Giant, but most likely it will be fine-tuned with a one-mana nerf only.

Will there be a second Demon Hunter nerf? If there is, it would probably hit their card draw, and the Demon Hunter’s best-performing tool for that is Sigil of Alacrity. Getting free draw for a specific turn can really enable insane draw turns, and Sigil of Alacrity is even stronger than Tuskpiercer for that purpose. There are two ways to nerf it: either the mana cost of the Sigil itself is increased by one, or the discount from the drawn card is removed. Blizzard usually likes mana cost increases, so I guess that is the more likely path if they choose to target the Sigil.

Shaman Nerfs

Shaman also has multiple viable decks, but the likes of Elemental Shaman hardly need to be slowed down – they’re already as slow as you can play in the current meta!

The Quest Shaman experience, on the other hand, can range from slowly completing the Questline and going for an OTK to completely blowing you out of the game with their Overload cards and removal of the actual Overload.

But how do you stop it? Many of the deck’s most powerful turns are fueled by Lightning Bloom and Guidance, both of which are dual-class cards, so I don’t expect them to be changed. Perpetual Flame is another powerful card, a board clear for one mana when it all comes together just right, but it is not necessarily a card to nerf, if the aim is to slow things down. Charged Call, maybe? It gives the deck one of its powerful finishers, but it is not necessary for many of the deck’s win conditions. Canal Slogger is another powerful card for both attack and defense, but is it really strong enough to warrant a nerf? Quest Shaman is difficult to change in just the right way.

I would like to see the Questline Command the Elements itself changed. If you simply change the reward of the first step to something else than unlocking the Overloaded mana crystals, many of the most insane openers become far less powerful as they are followed by a dead turn. This will also indirectly weaken Perpetual Flame, although Shaman can still play Overdraft to get around it some of the time.

Shaman is tough to predict, but maybe Blizzard will opt to touch its survivability with a Perpetual Flame nerf in the end because its win conditions are so difficult to touch.

Hunter Buffs

There are seven buffs coming across three classes. This makes predictions difficult as we do not know how many cards from each class will be changed. We do know that the buffs will target recent archetypes that were not as successful as the developers had hoped for, so that is a good starting point. What Hunter archetypes did United in Stormwind attempt to push? There’s the Questline Defend the Dwarven District, of course, and then there is this Token Hunter with The Rat King. But how do you fix either of them with just one or two changes?

One of my favorite suggestions that I saw on social media is to change Lock and Load to only give Hunter spells instead of any Hunter cards. This would make the card far more playable in Quest Hunter and ensure that the deck does not run out of stuff as easily. I think it is unlikely that Blizzard would go for such a subtle change though. Lock and Load to zero mana is something that I could see happening, though.

It is also notable that the tweet about the patch features the art from Selective Breeder, so that is quite likely to get a buff. I would expect a mana cost reduction, but stats increase is also possible. A one-mana 1/1 sounds much better than a two-mana 1/1.

Mage Buffs

The Elemental Mage archetypes have been disappointing. Both the Frost Mage from Forged in the Barrens and the Fire Mage from United in Stormwind have been disappointing and uncompetitive. Hero Power Mage from Forged in the Barrens did not work either. Frost Mage looks simply unsalvageable with the current Frost spell pool, but the others could perhaps be rehabilitated. I would expect Mage buffs to focus on minions so that they do not improve Quest Mage.

Reckless Apprentice and Sanctum Chandler are the key build-around cards, and both could easily see a mana-cost decrease. Reckless Apprentice probably needs to take a Health hit alongside the mana-cost reduction, but it would be fine as a three-mana 3/4, coming out on curve after Wildfire.

Warrior Buffs

Warrior is the weakest class in the game. I can’t remember the last time Warrior has been this bad. Therefore, I expect Warrior to get three buffs to help the poor lad out. Quest Warrior, Big Warrior, Taunt Warrior, the archetypes pushed in Forged in the Barrens and United in Stormwind have all failed.

One big thing that could help most Warrior decks is to buff Outrider's Axe. It is Warrior’s main card draw tool at the moment, and it is not doing a spectacular job. Maybe make it a three-mana 3/2, if a three-mana 3/3 is too good? Getting the weapon out earlier, and getting that card draw rolling, could improve Warrior’s chances to answer the opponent’s moves. Another change that could improve Warrior’s draw would be to buff Ringmaster Whatley to four mana. This would also buff Rush Warrior a little by enabling Whatley to be followed by Conditioning (Rank 2) on curve.

Another improvement that could help multiple Warrior decks, including Quest Warrior, would be to make Cargo Guard a 3/4. A minion with two attack for three mana is just too weak in this meta, as it cannot effectively trade with most of the minions that see play.

I’m not sure if Big Warrior can be good and balanced. Right now, it is way too slow. Cowardly Grunt to five mana might make it too strong. Still, that’s pretty much the only improvement for the archetype that I can easily come up with and I doubt it will happen.

Buffing Warrior’s card draw might be too generic and perhaps Blizzard has something more specific in mind, but I think the draw buffs would help a wide variety of archetypes of what is currently the weakest class in the game, so they would not be completely unwarranted, even if they are not as specific as some other buffs.

My Overall Predictions

To sum up all of this, here are the changes I expect will happen:

• Priest redesign: Mindrender Illucia to not give an extra turn for aggro decks.
• Warlock ban: The Demon Seed in Wild.
• Warlock nerfs: Flesh Giant to 11 mana, Backfire to draw two cards and deal two damage.
• Demon Hunter nerfs: Irebound Brute to eight mana, Sigil of Alacrity to two mana.
• Shaman nerf: Perpetual Flame to two mana.
• Hunter buffs: Lock and Load to zero mana, Selective Breeder to one mana.
• Mage buffs: Reckless Apprentice to a three-mana 3/4, Sanctum Chandler to four mana.
• Warrior buffs: Outrider's Axe to a three-mana 3/2, Ringmaster Whatley to four mana, Cargo Guard to 3/4 stats.

What would the game look like if these were implemented? None of the combos would be killed, so combo decks would still remain strong, but there might be a little more room for more midrange decks to get into the game. It is unlikely that really slow control decks can return to Hearthstone without major changes, which this patch will not deliver – and intentionally so. Adding a bit more variety to the current meta where you either play fast aggro decks or combo decks, in this case in the form of more midrange decks, would be a welcome improvement.

What do you think? What nerfs or buffs do you hope to see next week?